Rest vs Rust in the NFL

Here we are at the second week of the NFL playoffs again, which brings up the same question every year.  Is it better for teams that have clinched first-round byes and playoff seeds to rest their players at the end of the regular season, or play them to keep on a roll going into the playoffs?  Lets look at both sides of the issue.

The reason why most NFL teams decide to rest their players is simple; players cannot get hurt when they are on the sidelines.  They worry that their "star" players might get twisted knees, turf toes, concussions, or any of the myriad of unfortunately common NFL injuries.  Its the same reason most teams do not play those same players during most of the pre-season.  Seems like a simple enough approach, but lost in that explanation is the other primary benefit of resting your starters.  Their backups get real-time game experience.  Any player has the same chance of getting hurt during the playoffs as he does during any other game of the season.  If your top quarterback goes down early in game one of the playoffs, the more reps his backup has not just in practice but against live opponents the better off your team will be.  The only time to give those second-string quarterbacks, third-string running backs, fifth receivers, etc that experience without jeopardizing your playoff position is to play them while resting your starters at the end of the regular season.  Your team will be better prepared if the unthinkable happens during the most crucial game of the year.

The argument against resting your team's starters comes down to one word, Momentum.  I capitalize it because it has become so important in sports, and so frequently discussed, that it has taken on a life and identity of its own.  When a player or a team is playing well, the trend is to continue playing well.  Mentally it helps with confidence.  Physically it helps with conditioning and repetition.  In the recent history of the NFL, Momentum seems to be one of the most important things in the playoffs.  Prior to the recent millennium, there were not that many upsets early on in the playoffs.  Most of the division winners went on to meet in the championship games.  Since then, we have seen sixth-seeds win the Super Bowl and many of the top seeds get taken out after their bye week by teams that had to scrap and claw just to make it there.  The teams have gotten so close in talent between the top few and the next several in the league that something simple as Momentum is enough to overcome the luxuries of resting and rejuvenation.

 If you had control of your favorite NFL team and had the great fortune of clinching playoffs or divisions early, what would you do with your players?  Rest them to prevent injury or play them to preserve momentum?  This weekends games involving Indianapolis and New Orleans will help us answer that question.